>> those of us in the press lockup, there was a gasp when we saw the unemployment rate. many of us expected it to go up in september. they were told they found work last month. that is what pushed the unemployment rate down to 7.8%, the lowest level since january january 2009. nearly 600,000 of these newly employed people said they were working part-time for economic reasons. several economists say they

think it's worst of job growth was likely a statistical look. the numbers are volatile because the serving size is small and includes self employed people. >> this morning we found out that the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since i took office. [ cheering ] more americans entered the workforce. more people are getting jobs. >> separately, as you mentioned, the survey of workplaces found that employers added 114,000 non-foreign payroll jobs. that was as expected. both the president and romney agreed that is not strong enough to get everyone who wants a job back to work. melissa: peter barnes, thank you

so much for that report. lori: people are judged -- digesting the jobs number. michelle, great to see you. how are people to make sense of the household survey against the private payroll numbers. it seems like a disconnect. >> it does. the two surveys are often, the household survey is always more volatile. it is not uncommon to see job gains and losses in the household survey of four or 500,000. the sample size is small and when they blow it up to represent the population, you just get a lot more volatile swings. you really need gains or changes of over 400,000. that is one of the reasons. we can also talk about the fact, i do think there was a physical

boost from youth employment that i think it led to an increase in september. lori: what constitutes a job? or peter barnes referring to the self-employed. people who are doing their startups. is a job just anyway to generate an income at this point in a recovery? >> it is important to look at the dynamics of the employment situation in terms of underemployment. the fact that you have people who are working part-time and rather be working full-time. that is meaningful. we still see a situation where the economy is in and under employed situation and, i guess, in general when you step back and think falling to 7.8, that is great news. it is still 7.8% and that is not so great. we still have ways to go.

lori: the participation rate rose. the improvement and on employment is not because people are giving up which had been a case in prior months. >> that is definitely the case in this month. the reason twice as many people actually found work. this has been a report where it was good news all around. there was not an aspect that statistically took away the message that is sent. lori: private sector hiring was weaker than expected. >> the payroll survey, which is a more accurate survey, that is the one we focus on, companies paying, in any case, what we saw

in september was very much in line with the tepid job growth we have seen over the last couple months. the employment situation is probably not getting any worse, but it certainly does not seem like it is getting any better. at this pace, 125,000, we will just not get sustained decline in the unemployment rate. lori: is it safe to say that we will close here that the unemployment rate is below 8% for the time being. >> i would not be a surprise to see a get back. lori: we sure appreciate you joining us. it is great to have you. melissa: let's go to the cme for more reaction on today's jobs number. phil flynn is there. crude oil is getting crushed. down about two dollars right now. >> if you look at all the commodities, we are down a little bit because of the jobs

numbers. that generally pushes us down a little bit. there is a lot more going on in oil today. we had all the concerns with the refinery outages, etc., some of those problems seem to be easing a little bit. the pipeline has been restarted. that will put downward pressure on the price. we are seeing a little bit of a reduction of the risk premium once again because the syria turkey situation has seemed to calm down a little bit, at least for the moment. a lot of selling right now. we are seeing the spread. very interesting between the front month gasoline and the back months. the spread is huge. a sign that the pain in the gas market might be easing soon. melissa: everyone is focused on the story out in california

where we have this fuel shortage and prices have popped up above five dollars did some reports you can find six dollars out there in california. does the futures market care about that at all? >> well, it is kind of rearview mirror. it is on its own coast to it does not affect the rest of the country. the problems in california, of course, really have to do not only with the refinery problems, but the switchover from the summertime. those refineries go out a little bit further. the shortage really is of the summertime finds for not build up because of the refinery problems. melissa: phil flynn, always fantastic. thank you. lori: he does a great job. melissa: you cannot stop him. i have tried. lori: american airlines flight continued to be canceled.

you have heard the story. more on that after the break. melissa: take a look as we head out to break here. here are metals. gold down about three quarters of a percent. silver moving more than a full percentage point. we will be right back. ♪ hi, i'm phil mickelson. i've been fortunate to win on golf's biggest stages. but when joint pain and stiffness from psoriatic arthritis hit, even the smallest things became difficult. i finally understood what serious joint pain is like. i talked to my rheumatologist and he prescribed enbrel. enbrel can help relieve pain, stiffness, and stop joint damage. because enbrel, etanercept, suppresses your immune system, it may lower your ability to fight infections.

serious, sometimes fatal events including infections, tuberculosis, lymphoma, other cancers, and nervous system and blood disorders have occurred. before starting enbrel, your doctor should test you for tuberculosis and discuss whether you've been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. don't start enbrel if you have an infection like the flu. tell your doctor if you're prone to infections, have cuts or sores, have had hepatitis b, have been treated for heart failure, or if, whilen enbrel, you experice persistent fever, bruising, bleeding, or paleness. [ phil ] get back to the things that matter most. ask your rheumatologist if enbrel is right for you. [ doctor ] enbrel, the number one biolog medicine prescribed by rheumatologists. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome.

[ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro.

♪ lori: dozens of canceled flights on american airlines. all of the flights will be back tomorrow. melissa: that is good news. but it may make people nervous. >> good experiences with them. a lot of people have had a bad experience. they are blaming coca-cola and substances that fall onto the ground. and the stickiness that built up over the years. lori: that should not happen. >> bottom line, they have the problem corrected. cheryl casone was able to break this on air. faa approved locking mechanism. i think in english this is called a bolt. to make sure no seats can be dislodged. [laughter] all of the 757 will be back in service by saturday. the problem for them, one in bankruptcy looking to redo the

contract with the pilots. they did not talk for quite a while last month. they were the worst north american airline for on-time performance. americans trying to get back into the game. little things like this do not help. i was on time and had a good experience with them. melissa: i have to ask you because this is what a lot of people are asking, is there any chance this is sabotage? >> this was the initial issue between the maintenance union and the fact that american outsource some of the maintenance on their aircraft. in this case, what american is saying is, leave it or not, when you spill coca-cola and all this stuff, it kept the locking mechanism from locking

functionally. it built up to a degree where it would not allow the seat to lock properly to the cabin floor. lori: interesting story. thank you for sharing. melissa: as we do every 15 minutes, let's head to the floor of the new york stock exchange. nicole petallides is watching a big mover. nicole: a couple of names and focus. avon. you all remember what we talked about the company coty thinking than $11 billion bid. that did not go through and shareholders were disgruntled. now there will be a change. they will have a step down from the top. that is something that everyone is noting in the stock is getting a nice pop. 6% to the upside. zynga, once again, lowering their outlook.

that is hitting facebook. you are seeing zynga under pressure. it has been down about 17-18% most recently. back to you. lori: indeed, nicole. thank you. melissa: hugo chavez facing fierce competition. would a change at the coffee good or bad for oil prices around the world? find out after the break. lori: let's see what the dollar is doing. it is weaker, two. there is a trend. the dollar, probably moving because of news out of europe. 130.49 is your dollar euro exchange. back with more after this. ♪

♪ >> @21 minutes past the hour i have your blog news minute. fearing warplanes reportedly are pounding the city of homes.

it has been one of the 18 -month-old rising against the president regime. police shot and killed a young american after he opened fire at a resort. authorities say he filled 1% in the incident appeared to be based on a personal dispute. police say the attacker stole a gun from a hotel security guard. health providers are notifying patients in nearly two dozen states that routine steroid injections may have been contaminated with meningitis. thirty-five people have become sick and five of them have died. the fda is urging doctors not use any products from the massachusetts pharmacies that supplied the steroid. those are your news headlines on the fox business network. get you back to melissa and lori. melissa: venezuelan president in the fight of his life.

he is running for reelection this weekend. after 14 years in power, he may actually lose at this time. what will that mean for oil around the world? we have a professor at the university of houston and an author. thank you for joining us. we appreciate your time. let's get right to it. the whole time we were there, they had machine guns trained on us. it was like chavez has this country in such a grip. it is hard for me to believe that he could lose an election. what do you think? >> foreseeable think so. you never know. venezuela is strange. chavez is a unique man. populism died with communism years ago. the mother load -- you never

know. i hope that he will not win because he is not useful for venezuela. melissa: do you think they have free and fair elections? >> i think it is going to be freer than you think this time around. although, i would not pass by, i have told many of my venezuelan friend that i cannot see chavez giving away the presidency. he believes that his reason of existence -- it is hard to identify your own government. melissa: absolutely. let's talk about his challenger a little bit.

henrique -- i am going to state his last name wrong. that is far right compared to chavez. what would he need for the country and what would he mean for oil? they both promised to increase oil production. that is insane. right now they produce 1.7 billion barrels a day. production is down 25% since 2001. those are both crazy goals. but with this other guy mean? >> a well-known family and venezuela. he is well-educated. he is liked. he is likable. he is young. he has all of the, let's say, what venezuela needs. he has a fair chance. venezuela is a strange case

because $100 oil, chavez is an 1800-pound gorilla. there is no way that the price he will try to produce -- the problem is us, the united states. we've shot ourselves in the foot for instance with the keystone pipeline. melissa: we have to do this again. we are out of time. it is so great to see you again. i hope you will come back soon. >> thank you. melissa: trading on today's jobs numbers. next we have a market strategist to tell us what today's report should mean for your portfolio.

lori: let's take a look at some of today's winners and losers on the s&p 500. you have a bond with a nice pop up 6%. a lot of winners today. back with more "markets now" after this. ♪

[ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, they pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and save you up to thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs. call today to request a free decision guide

to help you better understand what medicare is all about. and which aarp medicare supplement plan works best for you. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and you'll never need a referral to see a specialist. there's a range of plans to choose from, too. and they all travel with you. anywhere in the country. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. call today. remember, medicare supplement insurance helps cover some of what medicare doesn't pay -- expenses that could really add up. these kinds of plans could save you up to thousands in out-of-pocket costs...

you'll be able choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. and you never need referrals. so don't wait. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide. this easy-to-understand guide will answer some of your questions, and help you find the aarp medicare supplement plan that's right for you. lori: breaking news and this is painful. federal boost fiscal year 2012 has come to a close and no surprise, it wasn't cheap. incredibly costly. according to the cbo, the estimate that the federal budget deficit for the year, more than a trillion dollars. 1.1 trillion that is $200 billion lower than the short fall recorded last year. the 2012 deficit was equal to 7% of our entire gdp for

prespective. melissa: time for stocks as we do every 15 minutes. let's head to the floor of the new york stock exchange. nicole petallides standing by. stocks were losing steam. they were up on the jobs report but now up just 44. >> it's true. we're going into the weekend. there are a couple things to note. i was looking at bank of america which was shining this week. it was up over 9% for the week today. i notice it is pulling back a little bit. tech-heavy nasdaq composite has now moved into the read the same day apple is lower right on the anniversary of the death of steve jobs one year later. s&p 500 is up one quarter of 1%. we should note the major averages gained this week but we're giving a little more back. back to you. melissa: nicole, thanks so much. lori: markets reacting to the jobs report. where should you put your money? sandra smith has a look in today's trade. >> lori, melissa, you caught me talking to traders.

we're looking at vix. unbelievable mood. the vix is dropping on the unemployment report. this is sometimes referred to as the fear gauge of the market. it can indicate complacency amongst traders. if you throw it up we're around the 14 level. we had been right around 13, down about .43 right now. this as the s&p 500 by the way hits a five-year high. there have only been four times in the past five years where we saw the vix drop below 14. this is sort of history in the making. after that unemployment report, traders, investors come place ebt in the marketplace. that can often been a contrarian gained tore. when you're top heavy in the stock market maybe there is a reversal trending. before that unemployment report we were actually going back to levels that we started out the day at. so we've taken back a lot of those earlier gains. oil down here, lori, melissa,

a huge story as well. we're back below $90 a barrel. the thing i keep talking to traders about if this unemployment report was so bullish and indicated strength in the economy oil would be up. it really represents some of the doubts we heard from traders down here on the floor. back to you. melissa: definitely, sandra smith, thanks so much. so the market showing gains after today's jobs report, as sandra was talking about but not as much as you would expect. joining us is kevin curran, market strategist at stifel nicolaus. kevin, thanks so much for joining us. let's build on sandra's point. we're looking at a market up 50 points. 7.8% unemployment should have have triggered a big rally because it was so much lower than expected. what do you think is going on? >> what you're see something continuation of data getting modest of thely better but not tremendously better. i throw out the 7.8% unemployment rate because there are so many moving parts in the household survey because that number

could bounce all over the place. i wouldn't be surprised to see it work its way back up in the next couple months, for example. what we've seen in employment, is steady gain of jobs. the establishment survey showing 110 or 120,000 jobs, continuing that improvement. really to get this economy really humming, you need to get that number well above 250,000 jobs. we're simply not there. melissa: this is important because this isn't about politics. you're sitting there betting with your money and other people's money. it is not political and you are still not necessarily buying this 7.8% number? are you looking more closely at the payroll number showed addition of 114 thou jobs versus 800,000 plus thousand from the household? >> ultimately when you look at the household survey, this gets really confusing. there are two different surveys. melissa: totally separate. >> totally separate. the employment survey goes out to individual employers and through those employers finds out how many people are working and therefore

covers a much broader scope of the u.s. economy. the household survey does individual house by house questionnaires and surveys. cover as much smaller section of the economy. so that survey, which is what gave you the 7.8% number is a very volatile kind of survey. so i wouldn't be at all surprised to see employment survey you have to focus on. i think that is what most serious investors focus on, not the 7.8% number. melissa: if you try to put all the data together, employment reports we're talking about today, gdp number at 1.3%. everything out there that is floating around your interpretation is not that we have a big recovery going on or that we're slipping back into a double-dip recession but rather things are getting better in very slow increments? is that your interpretation. >> that is very well-said. we're grinding forward in this economic recovery. we're looking at an economy that is creating jobs but not sufficient, not at a sufficient enough pace to cover the new entrants into the work first.

-- force. what we have is forward momentum. we have slow growth, maybe one to 2% growth in the economy but really nothing that we've seen before in many generations. very slow recovery. melissa: based on that analysis, do you get deeper into the market? do you wait and see? do you hold where you are? overall what do you do based on all that? >> we have a barometer we follow fell from the spring through the summer. it stablized at the last couple months. our best expectation that barometer will begin to improve fundamentally, manufacturing, hiring, final demand, all those things should improve modestly as we move forward from here. we're adding risks to the portfolio. melissa: okay. >> we want to be very balanced, fiscal cliff is out there, europe wants is out there. we want to be cautious. melissa: very logical and thoughtful analysis, we appreciate it. >> thank you. melissa: gas prices soaring in california to an average of $4.86 a gallon. yeah, doesn't mean gas stations are even making more money.

actually some are losing money and they're ready to shut down. we'll talk to a gas station owner coming up next. lori: let's look at interest rates. rates big move higher as we see some interpretation from the september jobs report that perhaps the economy is strengthening although people are very cautious saying don't get too excited about any meaningful jump in economic growth but still some encouragement nonetheless. that's why people are selling treasurys today. there is the 30-year, almost 3%. back with more after this. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is karen anjeremiah. they don't know it yet, but they' gonna fall in love, get married, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money.

[ dog barks ] because right after they get married, they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary, not commission. they'll get straightforward guidance and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. [ male announcer ] how do you make 70,000 trades a second... ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪ or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪ into a fifth anniversary of remission? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it.

>> i'm cheryl casone with your fox business brief. we have got the latest on the american airlines seat issue that has plagued company over the past week. the airline releasing a statement that the issue has been identified and maintenance teams are securing an faa approved locking mechanism to make sure no seat can be dislodged. repairs on 40 of the 48 aircraft are complete with all 767s back in service by saturday they say. is retirement making you fat? study from the institute of health policy studies says retirement is connected to modest weight gain of two to four pounds. extra pound can make a difference on your wallet. obese people pay $800 a year or more in knelt care. stocks continue upward trend off surprising drop in the nation's unemployment rate.

13,621. that's the latest from the fox business, giving you the power to prosper.

lori: what should you be doing with your portfolio to insure that you minimize tax consequences especially you don't really know whether we'll fall off the fiscal cliff coming in january? liz claman is with a money manager in cleveland whose main focus is to ease the potential tax pain. >> you know what, lori? when you think about growing your money you think about what toys you might want to buy. how about this boat like the nautical queen? we come on the boat which toils up and down the cuyahoga river. how do you teflon your coat when it comes to tough economic times and make sure to have enough for retirement? let's meet one of the top money managers, mark kepper of strategic wealth partners. good to see you. >> thank you, liz. >> how do i look in the had

hat. >> you good. >> we don't know what happens with fiscal cliff. don't you think people should protect the money no matter what would be on the horizon and how do they do that. >> absolutely. when you look to manage your money you don't want to look so much what will happen over the course of the month or two. you want to have a five-year time horizon of the these what we do with your clients. what we're seeing in really in environment of really slow growth next several years due to our fiscal situation, focus on good, solid companies paying solid dividends above the average of the stock market. >> do you think about minimizing tax consequences? >> absolutely. in a lot of the nonqualified portfolios that we manage, there is a pretty high mlp concentration. we do use mlps. >> master limited partnerships, usually oil and gas. >> right. so kinder morgan is one of the ones we like to use. actually it pays roughly a six 1/2% dividend.

a good percentage of that dividend is considered return of basis. >> kinder morgan is one of the stocks you like right now. you also like vodafone? >> right. >> why vodafone and did not say verizon? >> good you mentioned verizon. vodafone owns 45% of the verizon wireless. >> right. >> the noise thing about vodafone it is more undervalued than verizon and also pay as higher dividend yield than verizon. a great way to play verizon wireless without all the wireline issues when it comes to buying verizon. it is really a no-brainer at that point. >> when you look to putting names in a portfolio can you really ignore technology? is there a name you like right now because tech has been a strong performer? >> we like see gait. >> that sup 200%. >> that makes nervous. i think i'm am i buying at height? >> right. it is still unloved stock. p-e ratio is under five. dividend yield is higher than four. we look at it one of the

best deals out there. for some reason investors don't like the stock because they feel that since we're moving toward cloud computing that hard disk drives will disappear off the face of the earth and that is not going to happen overnight. >> you're saying that is still around because people are worried about the pc market. they're very concerned. >> absolutely. it will stick around for some years to come. there is such a huge margin of safety involved in buying that stock. how can you not do it when paying a 4% dividend yield at p-e ratio less than five? >> i want to tell our viewers something about mark. mark focuses a lot on specific clients like entrepreneurs and doctors. >> correct. >> the cleveland clinic is here. 3,000 doctors, 11,000 nurses. my understand was a surgeon. notoriously bad investors. he said buy kodak kid. you know what happened to kodak. >> right. >> is there customization you do for people? can they also take what you do and apply it to their

portfolio? >> for on thes we specifically work with we're working with entrepreneurs approaching exit point of businesses. within three years exiting? >> translation, selling and making a lot of money. >> right. they will receive a substantial liquidity event. most important thing that work remains optional. we don't need to hit home runs but get on base and avoid strike yuts. we like. >> unemployment goes down to.8%. we saw job creation but not as robust people would like to see. as a wealth manager how closely do you look at data and look at a point far away from the horizon and say we are going to protect our money. >> we need to see economic growth. in order for us to make meaningful dent in unemployment number we need breath growth of 3% a year. we're looking gdp growth at

1.3%. that will not be enough to start adding jobs. when you're adding 125,000 job as month. all that does is keep up with population growth. we need 250,000 jobs a month to reduce unemployment rate by 1% a year. still will be a tough path. >> still making money for his clients. mark tepper. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> coming up next hour we have more great guests. we have entrepreneurs galore starting up businesses. but we also have coming up at 3:00 p.m. eastern, james hambrick, chairman and ceo of lubrizol, the gigantic chemicals company that warren buffett bought outright. what does he see for the landscape? it is a different perspective. he has been working for the company for decades. he loves cleveland. like captain jim daily. wave to the camera. i was working in cleveland trolling up and down the river. melissa: look forward to the interview.

liz, thank you very much. california gas stations gas is too high to sell it. we'll talk to a gas station owner after the break. lori: as we go out to breck check out today's winners and losers. more after the break.

lori: so much for gas prices falling after labor day. drivers in california are looking at nearly $5 a gallon at the pump. on average drivers in the state are paying $4.49 per gallon for regular unleaded, nearly 70 cents more than the nationwide average. west coast refinery fires and pipeline outages are to blame but it is squeezing gas station margins. it is so bad our next guest

says he is considering shutting off the pumps when the gas he already bought runs out. he is owner of quality auto repair in north hollywood. sam, thanks for joining us. >> you're welcome. lori: so just got a report couple minutes ago that wholesale gas price in the l.a. area are lower by 55 cents on the wholesale level. so can you be optimistic at all that the worst may be over? >> not yet because i just got what are calling the bill for the prices for today. it is going to cost me $5.08 a gallon. lori: at wholesale level? >> that is the --. lori: over $5 at wholesale level. >> yes. lori: wow! that is unheard of. >> yes. lori: so if you, were to buy that gas at that price, over $5 a gallon, what would have to charge at the retail level to make a profit? >> at least i have to add, don't forget i have to --. lori: taxes. >> difference in taxes which

is close to 18 to 19 cents. plus my profit margin at least have to be 10 to 15 cents. so i have to put out a sign outside, 5.50, or 5.55 to make money. lori: will anybody pay that in the l.a. area because people are so committed and depend on their cars? >> yes. i've been getting calls. friend coming to the station, what's going to happen? what what's going to happen? i don't have an answer for them because i don't have a answer to myself self. how will i convince the people that price will go down and when see the prices going up and up and up like no tomorrow. lori: will you start shutting your gas pumps? >> still i got about 7 to 800 gallons left at the tank. i'm hoping the price will go down but i talked to lady at refinery the she said no, prices will keep going up. if you want to wait monday, maybe. i said are you sure? i don't know. i have an answer for you too.

tonight or tomorrow morning i going to shut it down. so this is first time in my lifetime. i've been in this location over 30 years. i mean shutting down the pumps. lori: is this a perfect storm? we mentioned exonoree finery fire. we have a chevron pipeline. elevated levels of organic chloride. whatever that is. that's what they're blaming. phillips 66 wanting to shut down to do maintenance on refinery. is this a perfect storm of events or -- >> when one refinery has a problem, next day, chevron have a problem. an hour later, pasco refinery have a problem. i don't know. i mean it's like a sickness or like a flu, contagious. goes from one refinery to the next. say we're having a problem. i understand. refinery problem. what about when we have, texas having a problem, we're shifting oil from california to them.

let them help out. let them help us. send us the oil from there to here. until we end up fixing the problem that we have the refinery, or let's build more refineries. they don't want to build more refineries oil companies, they want monopoly on the market. that is what it is. they want to control it. when i went in this business there were 15 oar 17 refineries in california. especially in l.a. now we have less than seven. we can't build a refinery? what is the big deal about it? we have money. we have resources. we have people. lori: frustration is understood. >> let somebody from the government going to do about it. lori: who will you vote for, sam? >> the president or somebody. people are struggling. i got people coming and buying for, you not going to believe me for $1.30. how far are you going to go with 1.30 of fuel? lori: let me, who will you vote for? we heard both candidates

outline energy policy earlier in the debate. who do you think is the better plan and who will you vote for in the presidential election? >> you know, i don't want, i don't want to go to choose one of them because i don't see any, any result. i mean if somebody is going to tell me, hey, you know what, sam, you're right, we're going to do something about this. we'll help little businesses. i just hear talk. are we going to help the little guy, middle class, small businesses but i'm not seeing it. every time, like i said been here over 30 years in the same location. when i try to get a enlo, told me, we're sorry, we can't give you a loan because you're overqualified. what do you mean overqualified. lori: i'm so sorry to cut you off. we understand your frustration. appreciate you sharing your challenges with us. good luck. we will check in with you soon. >> thank you. melissa: coming up, wow, he was on fire, huh? lori: has a lot to be frustrated. his whole business is

threatened because of soaring gas prices they're not containing. >> that's true. coming up tonight on "money", fill angelides is former california state treasure and obama surrogate. will talk about the job numbers 5:00 eastern on jobs fist. we'll dive deep into the gas story as well. it is a huge one. lori: over $5? i wasn't expecting that, wholesale level he is buying at business owners and having to sell it out. more economical to shut down the pumps. we're wrapping up 1:00 hour. don't go anywhere. liz claman is back showing how entrepreneur find opportunity in cleveland. she has secrets to finding a business environment. and where the job recovery seems to be headed next. keep it here on fox

>> market is up four now. tracy: you're from states where you put premium in you're not far off. connecticut close to $5 for premium. kind of everywhere. lori: thought worse would hit labor day. melissa: they have shortages. shutting pumps. have a special boutique blend. guys have a great show. ashley: thank you. tracy: i'm tracy byrnes. ashley: i'm ashley webster. two hours to go before the closing bell. stocks well off their best levels of the day. dow off 43 points and headed for a winning week. tracy: because the market cautiously reacting to this head-scratching jobs report. unemployment rate dropped and more americans said they're working but most settled for part-time jobs. we'll look ahead to what will move the market next week. ashley: plus an innovative new program in cleveland is giving budding entrepreneurs the power to make their dreams become reality.

liz claman with two of those entrepreneurs straight ahead this hour. tracy: that is a pretty picture. time for stocks now. as we do every 15 minutes we head to nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. i was looking at dow. we're up about 42 points, nicole. we are off session highs. >> we are off session highs. we're at 13,616 at our highest point today which was actually a multiyear high, folks. it goes back to 2007. the dow's highest point was at 13,661. goes back to 2007, december to be more specific. the nasdaq composite pulled back a little bit here in the red down one point. the s&p 500 is up .1 of 1%. i want to look at names leading the dow jones industrials in percentage terms. take a look at here so many names are hitting 52-week highs. names such as home depot, verizon, ge and wal-mart hitting 52-week highs. here is look at some of the winners. boeing, intel, dupont also

in that list. back to you. tracy: thanks, nicole. we'll see you in 15 minutes. ashley: so september jobs report shows that the economy added more jobs than expected last month and unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in 3 1/2 years. but that may not be the whole story. rich edson in washington with a closer look at the numbers. rich? >> ashley, a tale of two different surveys. one of employers saying they hired 114,000, not quite enough to even keep up with population growth. in the second the government contacts householdings. that survey shows 873,000 more folks said they were employed last month, bringing unemployment rate down from 8.1%, to 7.8%. about two third of that total were part-timers looking for a full-time job. still president obama at a rally in virginia ran with the headlines. >> this morning we found out that the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since i took office. [cheers and applause]

more americans entered the workforce, more people are getting jobs. >> so republicans no longer have their talking point of more than 40 straight months with unemployment more than 8%. governor romney farther south in virginia this morning says this still does not constitute a recovery, promising he is the only candidate who can bring one. >> if the same share of people participating in the workforce today as the day president got elected, our unemployment rate would be 11%. that is real reality what is happening out there. >> only one more employment report before election day. back to you. ashley: all right. rich edson, getting into the numbers there. thank you, rich. tracy: yeah we'll dig deeper into these numbers now. jerry webman chief economist with oppenheimer fund is with us now. it is very confusing because there are so many conflicting numbers. so what's your take out of

these? >> this is going to keep statisticians and economists just so happy for hours and hours. so we're all having a good time on one hand. on the other hand, for those of us who just want to have the big picture. it is a pretty good jobs story. it says the economy is continuing to general right some jobs, some growth. it is not spectacular, but it is kind of continuing to trudge along. i think that is really where you come down to it. we can get into one hand on the other hand stuff. that is, beg picture it is okay but not great number. ashley: the number that sticks out, jerry, 873,000 people coming back into the workforce but how are they coming back into the workforce and is it really helping the economy? >> whatever jobs is better than not having a job at all. the interesting thing not only, it was 800 some thousand actual new jobs. 400,000 increase in the labor force. whenever that happens somebody has a job and can buy something.

ashley: if i'm selling stuff on ebay, can i get credit. tracy: that was our fox business producer credit for that line. that was genius. >> i don't want to denigrate running somebody an entrepreneural operation. ashley: as an example. >> if i say i'm employed i think i'm in business and i figured out a way to make money. you have to be careful with two surveys. tracy: right. >> don't forget there were two surveys. there were shortcomings to each of them. so i don't want to -- that 800,000 figure, how i would question it more, what was odd is for the last couple of months it showed no increase at all. when businesses said we're hiring a few more people. so, you know, there's a lot of noise in these numbers and i don't want to explain them away. i want to kind of smooth them out as i try to respond. tracy: i think ashley's point is a good one. i also think a lot of people gotten to the point they're almost embarrassed they're unemployed, to say i'm selling smurfs on ebay, yes

i'm working. i'm so sick and tired saying i'm not working. >> people might be lying to the pollsters. that is why we do the surveys all the time. that's why we ask more than bun or two people. i have worked with survey data for the last, god knows, 40 years and i know sometimes it's misleading and yet, you ask enough people, you try to do the sampling and you try to get a sample that's not misleading but you don't look at one number. ashley: no. >> the important thing is for us not to get one number under the microscope and think that will tell us everything because each one of them tell as little bit of the story. ashley: yeah. >> and a little bit of misinformation. ashley: how many people have given up looking for work? we're told this is quite substantial. if you really include them in the workforce pool then the unemployment rate is lot higher than 7.8%? >> i know we get the number we've all been looking at through this recession that gets up to what now, still something like 15, 16%, come down a little bit but it has gone up about in the same

proportion as the headline number we all look at through the recession. went up about as much. come down in the same portion. we can look at it lots of different ways. clearly people dropped out of the labor force. it is smaller than it has been. some of that is i'm of retirement age but not retiring. some people said i'm retiring now. it is easier. there are lots of reasons people are discouraged. i tend to look as a quarter full, rather than 3/4 empty. tracy: you're good. 600,000 people took part-time work when they wanted full time. i don't think that is comforting. >> better than not at all. tracy: to your point. look at numbers. ashley: better than nothing. tracy: quarter full, versus 3/4 empty. jerry, thanks for being here. >> my pleasure. ashley: coming up an alarming trend at private companies. could it be another sign of a recession? we'll get into this with liz mcdonald. she will be here with emac's bottom line. tracy: cleveland open for business. liz claman is taking us

there live. talking to two entrepreneurs behind some of the city's hottest new start-ups. first as we do irv time this time of day let's look how oil is trading right now.

ashley: the latest jobs reports focuses on the

health of public companies but there are millions of private companies out there that are already sending up a big red flag we're already in recession. liz macdonald is here with emac's bottom line. what are the private companies telling us? shoe here's the deal. we've been looking at all sorts of economic data we want to really see what is going on with private companies because they can come to the market via ipo and create jobs. here's the deal. we're seeing sales growth dropped by 50% since january. this is according to sage works. this is indicator we saw, according to sage works back in 2008 when we saw this drop. and that's not a good thing. you want to see sales growth continue to grow up. then they can create jobs. is that a red flag recession signal? that could be one, that is according to sage works. we're seeing 27 million private companies versus 5,000 publicly-traded companies. 22 million u.s. jobs could be created if you brought more of these companies to

market according to rand thornton. that is the deal, that is the bottom line. tracy: but why? same reasons everybody else is scared of uncertainty, scared of taxes? ashley: fiscal cliff? >> they are scared of the fiscal cliff. when you talk to guys that track is, grant thornton, pricewaterhousecoopers, these guys file at individual rates. worried about the rates going up. watching to the ipo market. these are guys who come to the ipo market and go public. we're seeing trend, 168 ipos. coming down to 134 this year. are we stalling out a little bit? is this another recessionary sign? it could be. that is the bottom line. ashley: thanks, emac. >> sure, delighted. ashley: thank you. tracy: all right. we were talking about this earlier. so if you're worried about $4 gas, just be happy you don't live in california. prices have soared 35 cents in the past week. a gallon of regular gas in the golden state now costs nearly $4.50.

that is close to the state's record high of $4.61. we hit that back in 2008. it is also 70 cents higher than the national average which sits at around $3.79 a gallon now. this might not be the end. analysts say prices could go higher because refinery outages and pipeline problems are leaving the state tight on supplies. but then again wholesale prices fell today and you know, drivers are not only ones getting squeezed. some gas station owners are turning off their pumps because they're not making money despite the sky-high prices. i think margins are being squeezed. ashley: absolutely they are. tracy: but we do see the numbers out here. ashley: we do and it's strange. it is out of high driving season. this is time of year we should see prices coming down but they're not. that take as big chunk out of people's paychecks as you know household incomes are hitting lower. every 15 minutes, you know what we do. we go down to the floor of the new york stock exchange. that's where we find nicole

petallides. nicole? >> ashley, tracy, taking a look at major market averages, s&p and dow a higher, nasdaq is pulling back. i want to take a closer look at dow component wal-mart on a day hitting a new 52-week high. it traded as high as 75.50. year-to-date up nearly 26%. reading something recently from credit suisse talking about the fact of competition in the retail realm and wal-mart would be one of retailers to take market share away from jcpenney. a great run there. there is a 10-year picture for you. look at that. back to you. a winning day for wal-mart. ashley: very impressive, nicole, thank you so much. we'll be back of course in 15 minutes. tracy: coming up, fostering small business growth by mentoring entrepreneurs. focus of a new program in cleveland. liz claman is next from there. got us open for business. ashley: first, let's look how the dollar is moving right now. look how the currencies are

moving against the good ol' green back. there you go. euro sup, pound down. a bit of a mixed picture as we head into the weekend. we'll be right back eal is comin.

as a homeless teen myself, i really understand this first hand. nobody should go through that, and with your help, nobody will. to find out how to do your part, go to childhungerendshere.com

>> at 19 minutes past the

hour i'm arthel neville with your fox news minute. syrian government planes and tanks reportedly spent the day firing upon the city of homs what activists are calling the heaviest bombardment in months. it comes as rebels near the capital damascus say they captured a air defense base with a supply of surface-to-air missiles. the fbi investigating the possibility that the deadly shooting of border patrol agent nick class ivy was a case of friendly fire. they're looking whether ivie and a fellow agent exchanged fire in the belief that each was being shot at by a gunman. "national geographic" channel will air a film dra ma advertising the death of bin laden. it will air two days before the presidential election. those are the news headlines here on the fox business network. get you back to ashley and trace. ashley: fox's arthel

neville. thank you so much. tracy: here's a question. can you start a business in this economic environment? do you have a great idea and you live in cleveland you sure can thanks to the help of bizdom an entrepreneur accelerator that provides money and mentorship to startups. liz claman is live in cleveland with two of the business's founder who actually got help from the angel operation. hi, liz. >> how about that. it is mentoring and all kinds of activities that can help and it's money. thank goodness for dan gilbert, the founder around chairman of quicken loans. it was really his idea to put together this organization called bizdom they put together money and all kinds of entrepreneural, health get it together and have a competition to get ideas for big businesses and little ones two. we have two that won the opportunity to be part of this. lizette came up a pretty good idea for aging of

america. she is cofounder of safe care. and donna lee is cofounder of mascot secret. it helps you upgrade seats at sporting events from your cell phone walking into the arena. i love both ideas. great to see you both. >> thank you. >> i'll begin with you, first off you came up with the idea, safecare because your mom needed nurses aides for a couple years now. tell me what your business does and that nutshell you. >> safekiar is carfax for health care industry. my team and i chris and michael, have designed safecare to help eliminate elder aabuse in long-term care facilities. >> right. we track criminal records and state certifications and abuse listings. >> when you pitched to dan gill period of time, i assume you said almost nursing operation in america

has one person had a criminal background and they didn't realize it. >> right. one in five nurse aides currently employed have at least one criminal conviction that should have disqualified them from getting the job in the first place. >> when she pitched it was good enough dan gilbert said i'm in. you're one of six chosen. dozens and dozens, some 80 pitched their businesses. let me get to done that. mascot secret. how does does company make money? >> it is about monetizing idea. we make money taking commission for every transaction we sell. really simple how we make money. >> i walk into the new cleveland browns stadium and i have something in the knows bleed seats. what does your company do? i dial it up on my cell phone? >> you dial up on your cell phone. you get to pick, like the available seats. probably see those seats in front of you just like sitting in the nose bleed. at the same time on your cell phone you see the seating chart, pick the sections available and

pushes a ticket instant and move on down. >> do i get a credit for ticket? >> you get a incry mental increase. >> we all know about airlines upgrades. donna bringing it to supporting and arena events. when you made the pitch to dan gilbert and bizdom were you nervous? >> especially nervous because dan gilbert was behind the camera. we go in and pitch and we knew who was watching video. so absolutely. >> done that, when you heard your company had been chosen what was your moment like for you?. >> it was very exciting from my company. we moved from silicon valley to cleveland for the purpose of joining bizdom it was exciting of the as a tech company in a central tech hub knowing what cleveland has to offer in the tech space an entrepreneural space we were excited. >> that is it news flash, everybody. she moves from silicon valley to cleveland for the

opportunity. you know, there are venture-capitalists all over the world. how is bizdom different? >> they provide a tremendous opportunity to network through the quicken loans company, family of companies and mentoring opportunities are phenomenal. they really do support us. >> what is your dream with mascot secret? do you to sell it? do you want to make a lot of money? are you a serial entrepreneur? >> i explore all opportunities. mainly we want to build in cleveland and build the community as well. we're exploring all opportunities. >> mascotte secret. that is donna lee's baby and. safecare, that is lizette's baby. >> thank you. >> thank you dan gilbert, you give private enterprise big thumb's up. you bring in private companies and they generate business here in cleveland. coming up, "countdown to the

closing bell", what a line up of guests. we have the president of and ceo of cleveland clinic, basking on what happened during the debate. both candidates, mentioned the clinic as a model to uphold in health care. we have james hambrick, ceo, chairman and president of lubrizol. this is the company warren buffett just bought a year ago. chemical giant. what about the future for him? what does he see for the economy? he's just the kind of businessman we love to hear from. very rare interview. he doesn't give a lot of them. stay tuned, we have beth mooney of keycorp as well. we'll be right back. back to you, ashley. ashley: great stuff, liz claman. beautiful shot of cleveland. tracy: i was going to say that. ashley: liz, thank you. good news for parents, college tuition of private schools rising by the smallest margin in four decade. it is still really expensive. gerri willis breaks down the numbers next. tracy: before her, we go out to break, dow up 42 points. let's look at some of

today's winners and losers on the s&p 500. avon products up 6.7%. constellation brands, because we all need a drink. we'll be right back

[ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, they pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and save you up to thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs. call today to request a free decision guide to help you better understand what medicare is all about.

and which aarp medicare supplement plan works best for you. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and you'll never need a referral to see a specialist. there's a range of plans to choose from, too. and they all travel with you. anywhere in the country. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. call today. remember, medicare supplement insurance helps cover some of what medicare doesn't pay -- expenses that could really add up. these kinds of plans could save you up to thousands in out-of-pocket costs... you'll be able choose any doctor

who accepts medicare patients. and you never need referrals. so don't wait. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide. this easy-to-understand guide will answer some of your questions, and help you find the aarp medicare supplement plan that's right for you. tracy: 30 past the hour. nicole: we were just discussing what we are seeing in the market today. there are some key levels and keep things happening today. >> i thought today would be a really exciting day.

the unemployment rate is now below 8% for the first time in years. we see a breakout that should be filling another ten to 20 points higher in the end he feared. nicole: where is the excitement on wall street? why do you think it is so lackluster, the trading? >> it will not go down anymore. people taking money out of the market because they have done pretty well so far this year. nicole: maybe next week i will

ask you if there will be a fan of both rally also. back to you guys. tracy: holidays just around the corner. stores like macy's and kohls adding tens of thousands of jobs. jeff flock is that a kohls store in chicago. jeff: watching the cash registers. yes, there is question about today's jobs numbers. we thought we would come out and ask business. how optimistic are you about hiring going forward? kohls is one of the ones that is probably the most bullish. it is a mixed bag on summer hiring. roll them down as we look at stocks. sears expecting flat holiday shopping. walmart up slightly as well.

target, they say they will hire fewer people at the holiday did i have michelle thanks to is a district manager with kohls. how many more hires this year than last? >> about 10% more this year than last year. really it is just based on the needs of the customer's business. we want to make sure we can provide all the great conveniences. jeff: you are on the bullish side. >> we want to position ourselves to meet the customer needs. jeff: kohls stores with these brands, jennifer lopez brand, that is big for you. >> absolutely. we carry jennifer lopez. vera vera wang. really excited to bring our customers to our exclusive brands. jeff: businesses and what they think about hiring going forward. kohls pretty bullish.

there you go. a mixed bag. ashley: jeff flock. tracy: small business owners. critical voting group in a presidential election. which candidate do they like better and why wow that is coming up better. ashley: let's take a look at how your ten and 30 treasuries are trading. thirty year is moving. and so is your plan as well. the dow is up 37%. we will be right back. ♪ [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles, like in a special opsission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence

with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account.

♪ >> i am elizabeth macdonald with your fox business brief. american avenue mind that all of their 757 will be back online tomorrow. the airline releasing a statement that the issue has been identified and the maintenance teams are securing a locking mechanism to make sure no seats can be dislodged. the federal government fiscal year 2012 deficit shrank from the prior year. still north of $1 trillion. the cbo estimates that the budget for the year was about $1.1200. it is the 50th anniversary of james bond. the movie franchise is one of the longest of all time. it is the most second most

successful behind "harry potter." that is your fox business brief. giving you the power to prosper. ♪

tracy: i am not complaining about the cost of gas. i am complaining about the cost of college. it is a whopping, there it is, $29,231. there apparently is some good news here. gerri willis hasn't. i cannot imagine what it is. gerri: that is what my parents paid for their house. think about it. it is crazy. good news -- not really. it is up 3.9%. that is the lowest move and for decades.

that is what is passing for good news right here. ashley: it has just gone from ridiculous to awful. gerri: exactly. that is $116,000 for a four year degree. here is the thing. these kids get a lot of federal aid. that reduces the cost pretty substantially to about $12,000 compared to $8000 for a public institution. there is good news. twenty-four of these private institutions actually drove tuition and fees this year. we don't want to pay it. tracy: i am struggling with it. by that time my kids are ready, it will be a tough sell. what will they do with a bachelors in mythology. plumber, electrician, i am telling you, have you seen my plumber's house?

amazing. gerri willis. "the willis report" tonight. right here on the fox business network. gerri: we will talk more jobs. ashley: not going to happen. tracy: we have some breaking news now. oil. we have to talk about oil. that is the other thing i complain about all the time. oil trading down. that is a drop of 2%. show me that at the gas pump, ashley. ashley: you do not complain that much, well, maybe you do. tracy: not as much as you complain about american airlines. ashley: obama and romney -- what are the most important issues to them? my next guest recently pulled entrepreneurs with nine employees or less. thank you so much for being with

us. what did the survey tell you about the candidates when it comes to the small business owners. who do they prefer? >> thank you for having me, ashley. fifty-one-38% in favor of romney with our small businesses. nine employees or less makes up about 95% of the overall businesses in the u.s. 51% of them are talking about voting romney, 38% obama. ashley: i hear this a lot from small business owners, their biggest issue access to capital. affordable capital in order to grow their business. is that what you found in the survey? >> with republicans, we found that 90% of the small businesses that are going to vote republican, excuse me, 90% of them are talking about cutting red tape that their number one issue. on the democratic side, it is

more affordable and better health care options smaller businesses. ashley: from your perspective, what was the biggest surprise, do you think, in the survey? >> well, you know, there has been a lot of talk about the tax rate for small businesses. that was the third issue on their mind. it was not number one or number two. that is cutting government tape in making it easier for them to be successful. the second one, the healthcare option. below that, the issue of taxes. i think, you know, it does not necessarily match up against the talking points that are out there. ashley: according to the u.s. census between 2008 and 2010, 23,000 small businesses were lost. did you get a sense that we are kind of gaining back some of those small jobs? what is the environment like for starting small businesses? >> great question.

earlier this summer we put out an overall small business report. a lot of small businesses are talking about adding to their payroll. i think the overall sign relates to whether or not small businesses are optimistic and whether they will add new employees. that is looking very favorably. ashley: the number one issue is regulation. cutting through red tape. >> absolutely. i think that matches up again with the report that they put out earlier this morning which is, small businesses, they have a lot on their minds. and lots of challenges from inception to becoming successful. anything the government can do to get red tape for paperwork and etc. out of the way, gives small businesses the opportunity to do what they do best and that is what they are looking for from the government. get out of my way.

let me focus on what i do best. and be successful through that means. ashley: very good. very simple message. thank you so much. >> thank you for having me. tracy: you hear from everybody. ashley: i think he was canadian. tracy: our international translator over here. zynga shares taking a nosedive today. news of losses in the third quarter. big social networking giant. dennis kneale covering the story. zynga does draw something. i had an e-mail saying come back. where have you been? we stopped playing. dennis: a $90 million loss. part of the -- problem is zynga is getting zapped today. shares down almost 20% today after the maker of farm bill reducing the forecast. down over 2%.

zynga camps provide 40% of facebook revenues. zynga lowered its top full year forecast on revenue to 1.1 billion. introduce profit prediction by 45%. caught between two crunch points. it has to navigate the shift from laptop to tablet and smart phone games. 84 million users. this year 26 million. now down to 20 million. look at the quarter to quarter revenue. they are falling. mafia wars down 31%. city bill down 24%. zynga also hurt by a plot of this family spinoff. it also think writing off almost half of the deal. facebook, the zynga zinger

raises the question. watch the pressure on that stock. ashley: i love it. tracy: my daughter said, thankfully, we will be sick of these games in a week anyway. do not buy them. ashley: they are only like a dollar. tracy: i do not buy them. ashley: attention span these days, zero. a quarter till. time for stocks now. nicole petallides. nicole: i wish my kids would say i will be sick of this in a week, please do not buy it. let's take a look at avon. avon beauty products. we talked about coty putting out a $10.7 billion bid for avon. that did not go through. now the chairman is going to step down. who is coming in? will the executive takeover the

lead role? he is known as a turnaround guide. this will be one to watch certainly in the year ahead. back to you. ashley: thank you. tracy: fee is a tax dork to cost so i like him. we have a top strategist and he will tell us what he is watching next. ashley: checksum of today's winners and losers. the dow is up a modest 38 points. the dollar tree up. monster beverage also up. ♪ this is awesome!

folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. i'd say happier than a slinky on an escalator. get happy. get geico. melons!!! oh yeah!! well that was uncalled for. folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. how happy, ronny? happier than gallagher at a farmers' market. get happy. get geico.

♪ ashley: stocks are looking to finish the week strong. getting a boost from this morning jobs report. linda smith had today's trades. sandra: that risk on risk of trade. you can see risk is on when you look at the stock market today. there is a major selloff in the bond market today. commodities market selling off big time today. crude oil prices down. food prices down. wheat and corn plugging.

even pulled down. there are very few commodities that are actually gaining today. the u.s. dollar had its first drop in the left five days. this is a reaction to the jobs report this morning. also, if you look at the s&p 500, the fine is still there. risk is on in the market. there is a lot of question whether or not the market is too floppy at these levels. we are watching the fix. just over 14. if we go down to 13, there has only been four times in the past five years where we have seen the vix drop to those levels. when people get too comfortable, you start to see some selling in the stock market.

we are watching it for you. fax to you. ashley: thank you so much. tracy: today's jobs report to the week ahead. we have a senior equity strategist. we can pull it through some stuff. first thing in your notes, you said retail earnings this quarter. earnings season starts next week. why are they so important to you? >> remember, only 14% of retailers actually give us the figures monthly. it is only a small piece. it is the earnings season. companies like walmart, target, macy's, these guys and their ceos are giving us information and details on what is really going on behind the scenes. we discuss some numbers out of target. we want to know how the ceos feel about the holiday season. 40% of retail revenue is arrived in the fourth quarter. tracy: that is such a great

point. the cpi coming out. it comes out next week. you made a great point. the cpi has been moderate, which means consumer prices have not increased because that means they are sucking up the difference. >> yes. here is that delicate balance. let's just say you are a maker of washers and drivers and your input costs are going higher. you can only sell those drivers for $500 a piece. consumers are really strapped right now. producers are keeping their prices but at the consumer level. if their prices keep going up in the margins keep getting squeezed, it gets to a point and we have to watch out for that. that is what hurts us. i will be watching that closely. tracy: the consumer does not want to pay higher prices. commodities will probably turn. talk about that.

>> okay, so, a month ago, a month and a half ago, i was in new york. we talked about the correction. that has been a big benefit for consumers, both at the pump, but more importantly, and food. one of the things we forget about is the bulk of our energy, or i should say the bulk of our checks are spent on energy, on food and stuff like that. this warm weather has brought down the price of lobster. it helps factor in with that strength and confidence. tracy: earning season starts next week. alcoa to stay. jpmorgan, wells on friday. do you care about any of that? >> i care about all of them. tracy, again, listen to the report. do not read the headlines. listen to what the ceos have to say. that will decide the next move

in the market. for right now, we are bullish. as romney looks stronger and stronger, that is also bullish for the market. tracy: i love doing this with you. you have to come back. have a great weekend. ashley: lobster at half price. why not. coming up next. liz claman live in cleveland with the people who are hoping that city broke. find out how his company which was purchased by berkshire hathaway maintains it competitive edge. counter to "the closing bell" is next. ♪

him ♪ ♪